Quantitative Engine · Mission Control
Trade Calculator
The math that keeps you honest. Every number here should be the answer to a decision — not decoration.
Export Today's Briefing
Snapshot of the daily math dashboard and every calculator recommendation.
Section 01
Position Size Calculator
Shares600
Dollar Risk (max loss)$1,500.00
Stop Distance$2.50 · 0.59%
Capital Used$254,100.00 · 169.40%
At $150,000.00 account with 1.0% risk, your max loss is $1,500.00. At entry $423.50 with stop at $421.00, trade 600 shares.
Section 02
Risk / Reward Analyzer
R : R Ratio
3.00 : 1
Risk $2.50Reward $7.50
Breakeven Win Rate25.0%
VerdictA · Take it
At 3.00:1 you only need to win 25.0% of trades to be profitable.
Section 03 · Pre-Trade Gate
Setup Probability Scorer
Setup Score
0
/ 100
Verdict
NO TRADE — WALK AWAY
Section 04 · Auto-Computed
Daily Math Dashboard
Expected Value / Trade
$0.00
Profit Factor
0.00
Win Rate
0.0%
Consistency (Sharpe-like)
0.00
Avg Winner
$0.00
Avg Loser
$0.00
Win / Loss Size Ratio
—
Sample
0 trades
Path to $7,000 today
$0.00
$7,000
Log a few trades to unlock the daily math projection.
Win-Streak Probability
| Streak | Odds | 1 in |
|---|---|---|
| 3 in a row | 0.00% | — |
| 5 in a row | 0.00% | — |
| 7 in a row | 0.00% | — |
| 10 in a row | 0.00% | — |
Section 05 · Historical Regression
Stop Loss Optimizer
Log at least 5 trades with real entry/exit prices to unlock stop-loss regression. Currently: 0 trades.
Section 06 · Multi-Plan Comparison
Scenario Simulator
Draft multiple entry / stop / target plans for the same setup, tag each with your honest hit-rate estimate, and see EV, profit factor, and R multiples ranked side-by-side. Green row = best expected value.
Imports use each trade's actual entry & direction, then derive stop / target from your journal's average loss & win distances. Size is back-solved from realized P&L. Hit-rate defaults to your journal win rate — tune per plan before simulating.
| Plan | Risk $ | Reward $ | R : R | Hit % | Breakeven % | EV / trade | Profit factor | EV / 100 trades |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Plan A · Base long | $300.00 | $800.00 | 1 : 2.67 | 55% | 27.3% | +$305.00 | 3.26 | +$30,500.00 |
Plan B · Tight stop long | $180.00 | $1,200.00 | 1 : 6.67 | 42% | 13.0% | +$399.60 | 4.83 | +$39,960.00 |
Plan C · Runner long | $225.00 | $1,200.00 | 1 : 5.33 | 35% | 15.8% | +$273.75 | 2.87 | +$27,375.00 |
Expected Value per Trade
Plan A · Base
+$305.00
Plan B · Tight stop
+$399.60
Plan C · Runner
+$273.75
Monte Carlo
Insufficient journal — using plan hit-rate model
Plan A · Base
100% profitable runs
+$305.00
EV / trade (median)
54.8%
Hit rate (median)
+$302.39
EV mean
EV distribution · 90% band
+$206.00P5 — P95+$393.00
Hit rate 90% band: 46.0% — 63.0%
Equity curve · 100 tradesfinal median +$30,500.00
$1,500.00
Max DD (median)
$2,700.00
Max DD (P95)
0.1%
Ruin ≤ −$3,000.00
Plan B · Tight stop
100% profitable runs
+$399.60
EV / trade (median)
42.0%
Hit rate (median)
+$400.27
EV mean
EV distribution · 90% band
+$289.20P5 — P95+$510.00
Hit rate 90% band: 34.0% — 50.0%
Equity curve · 100 tradesfinal median +$39,960.00
$1,260.00
Max DD (median)
$2,160.00
Max DD (P95)
0.4%
Ruin ≤ −$1,800.00
Plan C · Runner
100% profitable runs
+$273.75
EV / trade (median)
34.9%
Hit rate (median)
+$271.89
EV mean
EV distribution · 90% band
+$159.75P5 — P95+$387.75
Hit rate 90% band: 27.0% — 43.0%
Equity curve · 100 tradesfinal median +$27,375.00
$2,025.00
Max DD (median)
$3,375.00
Max DD (P95)
1.6%
Ruin ≤ −$2,250.00
Log at least 5 trades in the journal to switch from the plan hit-rate model to real bootstrap sampling.
Sensitivity Heatmap
Vary stop distance (rows) × target multiple in R (cols) around each plan. Colored by EV per trade; hover a cell for hit-rate. Hit-rate anchors on your stated win rate at the plan's baseline R, scaled by neutral random-walk odds 1/(1+R).
Plan A · Base
base 1:2.67 · LONG · WR 55%
| stop× \ R | 1 | 1.5 | 2 | 2.5 | 3 | 3.5 | 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.50 | +147 99% | +153 81% | +152 67% | +152 58% | +153 50% | +153 45% | +153 40% |
| 0.75 | +221 99% | +229 81% | +229 67% | +229 58% | +229 50% | +229 45% | +229 40% |
| 1.00 | +294 99% | +305 81% | +305 67% | +305 58% | +305 50% | +305 45% | +305 40% |
| 1.25 | +368 99% | +381 81% | +381 67% | +381 58% | +381 50% | +381 45% | +381 40% |
| 1.50 | +441 99% | +458 81% | +458 67% | +457 58% | +458 50% | +457 45% | +458 40% |
| 1.75 | +515 99% | +534 81% | +534 67% | +534 58% | +534 50% | +534 45% | +534 40% |
| 2.00 | +588 99% | +610 81% | +610 67% | +610 58% | +610 50% | +610 45% | +610 40% |
baseline best EV
Plan B · Tight stop
base 1:6.67 · LONG · WR 42%
| stop× \ R | 1 | 1.5 | 2 | 2.5 | 3 | 3.5 | 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.50 | +88.2 99% | +133 99% | +177 99% | +200 92% | +200 80% | +200 72% | +200 64% |
| 0.75 | +132 99% | +199 99% | +266 99% | +300 92% | +300 80% | +300 72% | +300 64% |
| 1.00 | +176 99% | +266 99% | +355 99% | +400 92% | +400 80% | +400 72% | +400 64% |
| 1.25 | +221 99% | +332 99% | +443 99% | +499 92% | +499 80% | +499 72% | +499 64% |
| 1.50 | +265 99% | +398 99% | +532 99% | +599 92% | +599 80% | +599 72% | +599 64% |
| 1.75 | +309 99% | +465 99% | +621 99% | +699 92% | +699 80% | +699 72% | +699 64% |
| 2.00 | +353 99% | +531 99% | +709 99% | +799 92% | +799 80% | +799 72% | +799 64% |
baseline best EV
Plan C · Runner
base 1:5.33 · LONG · WR 35%
| stop× \ R | 1 | 1.5 | 2 | 2.5 | 3 | 3.5 | 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.50 | +110 99% | +137 89% | +137 74% | +137 63% | +137 55% | +137 49% | +137 44% |
| 0.75 | +165 99% | +205 89% | +205 74% | +205 63% | +205 55% | +205 49% | +205 44% |
| 1.00 | +221 99% | +274 89% | +274 74% | +274 63% | +274 55% | +274 49% | +274 44% |
| 1.25 | +276 99% | +342 89% | +342 74% | +342 63% | +342 55% | +342 49% | +342 44% |
| 1.50 | +331 99% | +411 89% | +411 74% | +411 63% | +411 55% | +411 49% | +411 44% |
| 1.75 | +386 99% | +479 89% | +479 74% | +479 63% | +479 55% | +479 49% | +479 44% |
| 2.00 | +441 99% | +548 89% | +547 74% | +547 63% | +547 55% | +547 49% | +547 44% |
baseline best EV